TROLEAR nearly.trade

trolear-2.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 25 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

  • +20
    Trade tax 1.00% buy / 2.00% sell; after the platform's 20.00% cut the creator gets 80.00% of it (0.800% per buy, 1.600% per sell; creator_bps 10000, platform_bps 2000).
    Evidence: launch trolear-2.nearlyt….near
  • +5
    The name 'trolear' was already used 13.0 h earlier by another creator (trolear.nearlytrade.near).
    Evidence: launch trolear.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 21 % (1577 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; the price held at 65 % of its peak (a rug needs 10 % or less).

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 12609.1% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
  • Sold by: trollonnear.near (dev).
  • Passed the threshold at 2026-10-01 02:04:18 UTC, 96.6 min after the launch: 3byS8JQkWJfwU…Yvi61.
  • Outside buyers' net result: -21.01 NEAR · insiders' net result: +42.42 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
  • Price at T+24 h: 65% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-10-01 00:27:40 UTC · block 217987802 · history: launch only
TransactionDQPUJDWAH4HAj…Q1xsU
Creatorlaunchbot.nearlytrade.near explorer
Owner (paid the launch bot)trollonnear.near
evidence: Bjw35ciD8HMPZD4p2D7ivbgcRrw8vYBM1U6H95CozYuj
Pooltrolear-2.nearlytrade.near|wrap.near|10000
Dev buy41.00 NEAR
Tax optionsbuy 1.00% · sell 2.00% · creator's share of the tax 100.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:49 UTC

Live state: history incomplete before 2026-10-30.

Why there is no number

This launch happened before our live data starts; the trades after its first 24 hours up to that day are missing, so no number is shown. Only the facts that do not need them are below. Why.

Facts now

Last trade2026-10-01 07:09 UTC (in the launch's first 24 hours; nothing seen since in our live data)
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0 · no trade seen in our live data
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)——0%0%12609.1%
Dev's first sell after launch————96.6 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)2125262930
Buyers spent217.03 NEAR276.02 NEAR278.41 NEAR366.07 NEAR384.13 NEAR
Buyers net result+20.36 NEAR-4.25 NEAR-7.64 NEAR-3.26 NEAR-21.01 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)11111
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)——0%0%12609.1%
Insiders' net result0.00 NEAR0.00 NEAR-0.0021 NEAR+0.01 NEAR+42.42 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer1.33x1.43x1.43x1.43x1.43x
Holders13107117
Top 10 holders' share99.1%100%100%100.0%100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 0% · holds nothing 0% · holds nothing 0.0% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — —
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side — — —
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group 5.3% · 6 of 14 hold 0.2% · 4 of 17 hold <0.01% · 2 of 17 hold
Other early buyers 7.2% · 6 of 7 hold 6.6% · 5 of 8 hold 8.6% · 6 of 12 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)12.5% · 21 wallets6.8% · 25 wallets8.6% · 29 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)87.5%93.2%91.4%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)99.1%100%100.0%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder99.1% · 2 merged100% · 2 merged100.0% · 1 merged
How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 6a701f7eb1c3f78…07b54 11 s · transaction 0.01 NEAR not sold +0.0019 NEAR
pair bought within 12.8 s of ultra-dolphin-7….near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
2 ultra-dolphin-7….near 23 s · transaction 0.30 NEAR 4.4 min after buying · transaction +0.03 NEAR
pair bought within 4.3 s of cead6cd7da2a01a…5f486 · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 12.8 s of 6a701f7eb1c3f78…07b54 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 52.2 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
3 cead6cd7da2a01a…5f486 28 s · transaction 9.90 NEAR 4.0 min after buying · transaction +1.48 NEAR
pair bought within 4.3 s of ultra-dolphin-7….near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 47.9 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
4 1b1300d6cfd064b…f5853 61 s · transaction 13.99 NEAR not sold +1.88 NEAR none found
5 d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 76 s · transaction 32.87 NEAR 6.0 min after buying · transaction +4.11 NEAR
pair bought within 22.7 s of kimpet77.near · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 36.2 s of 84730cb083829b6…d761e · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 47.9 s of cead6cd7da2a01a…5f486 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 1 more pairs · all pairs
6 kimpet77.near 98 s · transaction 20.00 NEAR 3.0 min after buying · transaction -0.57 NEAR
pair bought within 22.7 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 13.5 s of 84730cb083829b6…d761e · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
7 84730cb083829b6…d761e 112 s · transaction 2.48 NEAR 5.1 min after buying · transaction +0.39 NEAR
pair bought within 36.2 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 51.9 s of alola.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 13.5 s of kimpet77.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
8 truezest4223.near 2.5 min · transaction 30.00 NEAR 5.0 min after buying · transaction +1.46 NEAR
group one of 3 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 3 of those launches
pair bought within 15.7 s of alola.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 39.0 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 39.5 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 3 more pairs · all pairs
9 820065d24c77bce…8bb4c 2.7 min · transaction 8.00 NEAR 6.9 min after buying · transaction -0.91 NEAR none found
10 alola.near 2.7 min · transaction 1.00 NEAR 30.3 min after buying · transaction -0.09 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 241 of those launches
pair bought within 23.3 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 32 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 23.8 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 23.8 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 28 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 4 more pairs · all pairs
11 iagipero.near 3.0 min · transaction 46.00 NEAR 3.5 min after buying · transaction -0.92 NEAR none found
12 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 3.1 min · transaction 5.32 NEAR 78 s after buying · transaction -0.08 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 77 of those launches
pair bought within 0.6 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 60 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.6 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 56 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 23.3 s of alola.near · 32 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 3 more pairs · all pairs
13 c28ebb8af189396…a8c13 3.1 min · transaction 5.32 NEAR 77 s after buying · transaction -0.17 NEAR
group one of 3 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 19 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 33319fac01abb0a…182c0 · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.6 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 3 more pairs · all pairs
14 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 3.1 min · transaction 5.32 NEAR 78 s after buying · transaction -0.26 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 60 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 58 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.6 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 56 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 23.8 s of alola.near · 28 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 3 more pairs · all pairs
15 33319fac01abb0a…182c0 3.1 min · transaction 5.32 NEAR 77 s after buying · transaction -0.13 NEAR
group one of 3 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 19 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of c28ebb8af189396…a8c13 · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 3 more pairs · all pairs
16 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 3.1 min · transaction 5.32 NEAR 77 s after buying · transaction -0.22 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 63 of those launches
pair bought within 0.6 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 60 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 58 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 23.8 s of alola.near · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 3 more pairs · all pairs
17 d7dcdd3699422a6…198dd 3.6 min · transaction 20.00 NEAR 67 s after buying · transaction -3.63 NEAR none found
18 abusultanjby.near 4.7 min · transaction 2.00 NEAR not sold +0.0007 NEAR none found
19 volat.near 4.9 min · transaction 20.00 NEAR 4.0 min after buying · transaction -1.28 NEAR none found
20 buyitall.near 4.9 min · transaction 50.00 NEAR not sold -3.31 NEAR none found
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of trollonnear.near

None known.