In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.
+20
Trade tax 1.00% buy / 1.00% sell; after the platform's 20.00% cut the creator gets 80.00% of it (0.800% per buy, 0.800% per sell; creator_bps 10000, platform_bps 2000).
The largest funder's (tuffguy.user.intear.near) history before 2026-09-22 is not loaded yet, so the history-based signals may be incomplete.
It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.
Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 1 % (132 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.
Outcome rug within 24 h
No rug.outside buyers' net result +1682.14 NEAR, short of the 0.1 NEAR loss a rug needs; the price held at 35 % of its peak (a rug needs 10 % or less).
Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 151.8% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Passed the threshold at 2026-09-27 01:23:56 UTC, 13.0 min after the launch: 7P7J37Tqv2Mtr…5dFeY.
Outside buyers' net result: +95.75 NEAR · insiders' net result: +98.75 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 35% of its peak.
A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.
Launch
Launched
2026-09-27 01:10:55 UTC · block 217417327 · history: launch only
buy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 100.00%
Live state not a forecast · as of 14:42 UTC
No trading · the last trade was 2026-11-07 19:01 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.
Facts now
Last trade
2026-11-07 19:01 UTC
Price now
1.16x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.17x the peak
Outside buyers in profit
46 of 145 · 31.7%
Last 15 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour
0
Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Dev account
0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
—
Early buyers in a bundle
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
<0.01% · 2 of 4 hold
What these facts are
Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.
What happened after the launch
Metric
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+30 min
T+60 min
T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)
0%
175.2%
152.5%
143.2%
151.8%
Dev's first sell after launch
—
13.0 min
13.0 min
13.0 min
13.0 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)
6
25
33
59
129
Buyers spent
103.40 NEAR
634.89 NEAR
807.69 NEAR
1,783.98 NEAR
4,238.35 NEAR
Buyers net result
+11.72 NEAR
+36.85 NEAR
+93.39 NEAR
+1,682.14 NEAR
+95.75 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)
1
1
1
1
1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)
0%
175.2%
152.5%
143.2%
151.8%
Insiders' net result
-0.30 NEAR
+63.73 NEAR
+53.73 NEAR
+43.73 NEAR
+98.75 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer
1.23x
2.06x
2.06x
5.05x
6.86x
Holders
8
19
24
54
50
Top 10 holders' share
100%
76.7%
74.1%
48.9%
55.8%
Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.
Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Holder
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+60 min
Dev account
2.2% · holds
0% · holds nothing
0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
—
—
—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
—
—
—
Early buyers in a bundle
—
—
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
2.5% · 2 of 2 hold
5.6% · 4 of 4 hold
3.8% · 3 of 4 hold
Other early buyers
5.9% · 4 of 4 hold
17.9% · 13 of 21 hold
22.5% · 18 of 26 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)
8.4% · 6 wallets
23.5% · 25 wallets
26.3% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)
89.4%
76.5%
73.7%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)
100%
76.7%
48.9%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder
100% · 0 merged
76.7% · 0 merged
48.9% · 0 merged
How to read the table
A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.
Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them
Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.