END nearly.trade

end.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Elevated 30 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 21 % (1039 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders' sold share unknown and the insiders sold nothing; the price held at 93 % of its peak (a rug needs 10 % or less).

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 103.8% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
  • Sold by: narrownook4299.near (dev).
  • Passed the threshold at 2026-10-15 21:21:22 UTC, 633.9 min after the launch: BdfdKPirPUNkU…MWcog.
  • Outside buyers' net result: -1.13 NEAR · insiders' net result: -0.00 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
  • Price at T+24 h: 93% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-10-15 10:47:28 UTC · block 220067217 · history: launch only
Transaction4zu5yny6FxcgN…2cwt1
Creatornarrownook4299.near explorer
Poolend.nearlytrade.near|wrap.near|10000
Dev buy0.00 NEAR
Tax optionsbuy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 33.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:44 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-15 21:21 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade2026-10-15 21:21 UTC
Price now0.96x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.93x the peak
Outside buyers in profit0 of 3 · 0%
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side—
Early buyers in a bundle—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group0% · 0 of 3 hold
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)————103.8%
Dev's first sell after launch————633.9 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)33333
Buyers spent28.94 NEAR28.94 NEAR28.94 NEAR28.94 NEAR28.94 NEAR
Buyers net result-0.29 NEAR-0.44 NEAR-0.47 NEAR-1.13 NEAR-1.13 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)11111
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)————103.8%
Insiders' net result0.00 NEAR0.00 NEAR0.00 NEAR0.00 NEAR-0.0024 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer1.03x1.03x1.03x1.03x1.03x
Holders21210
Top 10 holders' share100%100%100%100%—

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 0% · holds nothing 0% · holds nothing 0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — —
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side — — —
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group 2.1% · 2 of 3 hold 2.1% · 1 of 3 hold 0% · 0 of 3 hold
Other early buyers — — —
All early buyers (the six rows above)2.1% · 3 wallets2.1% · 3 wallets0% · 3 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)97.8%97.9%100%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)100%100%100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder100% · 0 merged100% · 0 merged100% · 0 merged
How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 3 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 976b2ad5b28f766…93fe8 5 s · transaction 21.94 NEAR 58.2 min after buying · transaction -0.85 NEAR
2 c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 5 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR 10.1 min after buying · transaction -0.04 NEAR
3 e8a162641a55288…58210 20 s · transaction 6.00 NEAR 3.0 min after buying · transaction -0.24 NEAR
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of narrownook4299.near

TimeLaunchpadTokenRiskOutcomeData
2026-10-13 22:47 UTC nearly.trade whale.nearlytrade.near 30 Elevated retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-13 23:19 UTC nearly.trade believe-2.nearlytrade.near 15 Low retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-14 00:30 UTC nearly.trade nearlydog-2.nearlytrade.near 30 Elevated retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-14 02:00 UTC nearly.trade nearinu-4.nearlytrade.near 30 Elevated retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-14 02:07 UTC nearly.trade nearlycat-4.nearlytrade.near 30 Elevated retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-14 06:37 UTC nearly.trade nmoney.nearlytrade.near 30 Elevated retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-14 08:31 UTC nearly.trade fogo-2.nearlytrade.near 30 Elevated retro rug history: launch only
2026-10-14 10:54 UTC nearly.trade glorilla.nearlytrade.near 10 Low retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-15 13:10 UTC nearly.trade radarmeme.nearlytrade.near 30 Elevated retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-15 14:21 UTC nearly.trade neardragons.nearlytrade.near 30 Elevated retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-15 15:58 UTC nearly.trade ekang-3.nearlytrade.near 10 Low retro rug history: launch only
2026-10-15 16:16 UTC nearly.trade pnut-2.nearlytrade.near 10 Low retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-15 16:30 UTC nearly.trade pamp-2.nearlytrade.near 10 Low retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-15 16:50 UTC nearly.trade nearlykat.nearlytrade.near 30 Elevated retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-15 16:51 UTC nearly.trade nkat-5.nearlytrade.near 10 Low retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-15 20:49 UTC nearly.trade babykat.nearlytrade.near 10 Low retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-15 21:03 UTC nearly.trade babybatman.nearlytrade.near 30 Elevated retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-15 21:22 UTC nearly.trade avatarkat.nearlytrade.near 30 Elevated retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-16 02:33 UTC nearly.trade ekang-4.nearlytrade.near 30 Elevated retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-17 18:18 UTC nearly.trade bull-2.nearlytrade.near 30 Elevated retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-17 18:43 UTC nearly.trade mooncoin-2.nearlytrade.near 10 Low retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-17 18:52 UTC nearly.trade marscoin-2.nearlytrade.near 10 Low retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-18 00:19 UTC nearly.trade robin-4.nearlytrade.near 35 Elevated retro rug history: launch only
2026-10-18 04:46 UTC nearly.trade nearagent.nearlytrade.near 30 Elevated retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-18 09:22 UTC nearly.trade mochi-2.nearlytrade.near 30 Elevated retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-18 10:09 UTC nearly.trade nearszn-3.nearlytrade.near 30 Elevated retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-18 11:38 UTC nearly.trade supercycle-2.nearlytrade.near 30 Elevated retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-18 16:09 UTC nearly.trade nearcash-2.nearlytrade.near 30 Elevated retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-19 18:46 UTC nearly.trade brf.nearlytrade.near 30 Elevated retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-19 22:57 UTC nearly.trade jokerinu.nearlytrade.near 30 Elevated retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-19 23:05 UTC nearly.trade jokerinu-2.nearlytrade.near 30 Elevated retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-19 23:54 UTC nearly.trade nearlycash.nearlytrade.near 30 Elevated retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-21 14:13 UTC nearly.trade nearlykat-2.nearlytrade.near 30 Elevated retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-21 14:59 UTC nearly.trade blrf.nearlytrade.near 30 Elevated retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-21 16:58 UTC nearly.trade listedex.nearlytrade.near 30 Elevated retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-21 19:29 UTC nearly.trade hodl-4.nearlytrade.near 30 Elevated retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-22 00:36 UTC nearly.trade leo-2.nearlytrade.near 30 Elevated retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-22 14:54 UTC nearly.trade bee.nearlytrade.near 10 Low retro rug history: launch only
2026-10-22 22:52 UTC nearly.trade kimchi.nearlytrade.near 10 Low retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-23 00:46 UTC nearly.trade superinu.nearlytrade.near 10 Low retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-23 16:51 UTC nearly.trade nearmoney.nearlytrade.near 10 Low retro rug history: launch only
2026-10-23 21:24 UTC nearly.trade nearbear-2.nearlytrade.near 10 Low retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-23 23:37 UTC nearly.trade mochi-3.nearlytrade.near 30 Elevated retro rug history: launch only
2026-10-24 00:14 UTC nearly.trade supercat.nearlytrade.near 10 Low retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-25 01:57 UTC nearly.trade green-2.nearlytrade.near 10 Low retro no rug history: launch only
2026-11-01 05:06 UTC nearly.trade mermaid.nearlytrade.near 10 Low retro no rug live
2026-11-05 01:48 UTC nearly.trade pnear-2.nearlytrade.near 30 Elevated retro no rug live
2026-11-09 23:29 UTC nearly.trade splus.nearlytrade.near 10 Low no rug live
2026-11-12 07:23 UTC nearly.trade crash.nearlytrade.near 45 Elevated no rug live