GOOSE nearly.trade

goose.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: High 80 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

+50
4 of the 4 earlier launches that were already decided at launch time ended as a rug (0 by the creator and 4 by accounts linked to him); smoothed rug share 73%.
Evidence: launch monfli.nearlytrade.near, launch monko.nearlytrade.near, launch monni.nearlytrade.near, launch chessio.nearlytrade.near
+20
Trade tax 2.00% buy / 3.00% sell; after the platform's 20.00% cut the creator gets 80.00% of it (1.600% per buy, 2.400% per sell; creator_bps 10000, platform_bps 2000).
Evidence: launch goose.nearlytrade.near
+10
Received 48.50 NEAR 41 min before the launch from monfli.near, whose earlier launch monfli.nearlytrade.near ended as a rug.
Evidence: transaction 4jvtLhiuX2pjJzz8c…uY39N, launch monfli.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 5 % (399 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Rug — fast (by T+60 min). Outside buyers lost 25.33 NEAR.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 103.9% of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
Sold by: goosehoonk.near (dev).
Passed the threshold at 2026-09-28 16:10:34 UTC, 4.7 min after the launch: 64vHhKdFZSpT5…djJsF.
Outside buyers' net result: -25.33 NEAR · insiders' net result: +10.05 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-09-28 16:05:52 UTC · block 217653961 · history: launch only
Transaction	CJ21ZRBmAseJj…7SJD6
Creator	goosehoonk.near explorer
Pool	goose.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	38.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 2.00% · sell 3.00% · creator's share of the tax 100.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:44 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-09-29 18:51 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-09-29 18:51 UTC
Price now	0.91x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.70x the peak
Outside buyers in profit	3 of 19 · 15.8%
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account	0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	0% · 0 of 14 hold

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	100%	100%	100%	103.9%	104.1%
Dev's first sell after launch	4.7 min	4.7 min	4.7 min	4.7 min	4.7 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)	18	19	19	19	19
Buyers spent	244.98 NEAR	249.96 NEAR	249.96 NEAR	249.96 NEAR	249.96 NEAR
Buyers net result	-4.19 NEAR	-25.24 NEAR	-25.24 NEAR	-25.33 NEAR	-25.33 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	100%	100%	100%	103.9%	104.1%
Insiders' net result	+8.71 NEAR	+8.71 NEAR	+8.71 NEAR	+10.05 NEAR	+10.13 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.31x	1.31x	1.31x	1.31x	1.31x
Holders	14	5	6	4	4
Top 10 holders' share	97.9%	100%	100%	100%	100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	6.9% · 8 of 13 hold	0.1% · 1 of 14 hold	0% · 0 of 14 hold
Other early buyers	4.2% · 5 of 5 hold	0.2% · 1 of 5 hold	0.2% · 1 of 5 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	11.2% · 18 wallets	0.3% · 19 wallets	0.2% · 19 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	88.8%	99.7%	99.8%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	97.9%	100%	100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	99.4% · 1 merged	100% · 1 merged	100% · 0 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 19 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b	36 s · transaction	1.50 NEAR	7.0 min after buying · transaction	-0.15 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 212 of those launches pair bought within 49.4 s of alola.near · 103 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 39.8 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 68 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 20.4 s of kimpet77.near · 16 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs
2	kimpet77.near	57 s · transaction	10.00 NEAR	2.3 min after buying · transaction	+0.80 NEAR	pair bought within 29.0 s of alola.near · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 20.4 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 16 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 19.4 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs
3	orcabl.near	74 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	10.3 min after buying · transaction	-0.12 NEAR	pair bought within 12.1 s of alola.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.5 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 44.7 s of barrey.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
4	e8a162641a55288…58210	76 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	3.5 min after buying · transaction	+0.52 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 145 of those launches pair bought within 39.8 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 68 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 9.6 s of alola.near · 55 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 19.4 s of kimpet77.near · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
5	alola.near	86 s · transaction	1.50 NEAR	30.2 min after buying · transaction	-0.23 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 241 of those launches pair bought within 49.4 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 103 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 9.6 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 55 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 32.6 s of barrey.near · 22 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
6	80289da0a50f047…d6989	92 s · transaction	20.00 NEAR	2.5 min after buying · transaction	+3.44 NEAR	pair bought within 6.1 s of alola.near · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 55.5 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 15.7 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
7	barrey.near	118 s · transaction	2.50 NEAR	4.8 min after buying · transaction	-0.37 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 47 of those launches pair bought within 32.6 s of alola.near · 22 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 19.2 s of aceng03.near · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 42.2 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
8	slaynz.near	2.1 min · transaction	29.00 NEAR	4.2 min after buying · transaction	-4.37 NEAR	pair bought within 11.9 s of aceng03.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 7.3 s of barrey.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 39.9 s of alola.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
9	aceng03.near	2.3 min · transaction	10.00 NEAR	4.7 min after buying · transaction	-2.09 NEAR	pair bought within 19.2 s of barrey.near · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 45.8 s of 80289da0a50f047…d6989 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 11.9 s of slaynz.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
10	5008cb4b7bd395e…37b4f	2.7 min · transaction	5.00 NEAR	2.3 min after buying · transaction	-0.20 NEAR	pair bought within 23.7 s of aceng03.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
11	bc54559425f4e1a…f574b	2.7 min · transaction	0.99 NEAR	3.9 min after buying · transaction	-0.21 NEAR	none found
12	525be0f25e7adf4…c36ef	2.9 min · transaction	3.00 NEAR	not sold	-0.69 NEAR	none found
13	d4db9d08f22ca72…60719	3.3 min · transaction	5.00 NEAR	2.8 min after buying · transaction	-0.87 NEAR	none found
14	acd876fa672624e…fa933	3.6 min · transaction	39.80 NEAR	92 s after buying · transaction	-3.87 NEAR	pair bought within 51.1 s of tuyulz.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
15	a98e726c755db35…a3255	3.8 min · transaction	1.00 NEAR	2.0 min after buying · transaction	-0.21 NEAR	none found
16	7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8	3.8 min · transaction	50.00 NEAR	65 s after buying · transaction	-4.53 NEAR	pair bought within 36.7 s of tuyulz.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
17	tuyulz.near	4.4 min · transaction	9.95 NEAR	30 s after buying · transaction	-1.40 NEAR	pair bought within 36.7 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 37.3 s of 70ee6a00362a4e8…b1263 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 51.1 s of acd876fa672624e…fa933 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
18	7c514f45d519861…22d81	4.9 min · transaction	49.75 NEAR	40 s after buying · transaction	-9.80 NEAR	none found
19	70ee6a00362a4e8…b1263	5.0 min · transaction	4.97 NEAR	67 s after buying · transaction	-0.96 NEAR	pair bought within 37.3 s of tuyulz.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of goosehoonk.near

None known.