MERTS nearly.trade

merts.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

+20
Trade tax 1.00% buy / 1.00% sell; after the platform's 40.00% cut the creator gets 60.00% of it (0.600% per buy, 0.600% per sell; creator_bps 10000, platform_bps 4000).
Evidence: launch merts.nearlytrade.near

The largest funder's (d65871a725ef992d7f2cb732b728b7df371e7473ed7fed109573df100061e431) history before 2026-09-22 is not loaded yet, so the history-based signals may be incomplete.

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 35 % (725 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders' sold share unknown and the insiders sold nothing; insiders' sold share unknown and the insiders sold nothing by T+24 h.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold — of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Outside buyers' net result: -22.68 NEAR · insiders' net result: +0.00 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 50% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-10-23 12:47:14 UTC · block 221239750 · history: launch only
Transaction	GPGskt2nic1mR…efMke
Creator	launchbot.nearlytrade.near explorer
Owner (paid the launch bot)	coldpant65.near evidence: FiuBn3qbPwY92UnEbZKzc9D6MAfE2JpjvZs41nUeH4T7
Pool	merts.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	0.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 100.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:45 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-11-02 18:27 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-11-02 18:27 UTC
Price now	0.99x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.50x the peak
Outside buyers in profit	20 of 50 · 40%
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account	0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	<0.01% · 2 of 19 hold

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	—	—	—	—	—
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	—	—	—
Buyers (other than the insiders)	14	46	47	48	50
Buyers spent	180.80 NEAR	668.50 NEAR	677.50 NEAR	678.49 NEAR	680.73 NEAR
Buyers net result	+4.42 NEAR	+42.81 NEAR	-17.22 NEAR	-18.75 NEAR	-22.68 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	—	—	—	—	—
Insiders' net result	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.21x	1.99x	1.99x	1.99x	1.99x
Holders	11	28	13	12	6
Top 10 holders' share	99.5%	81.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	4.6% · 8 of 11 hold	5.0% · 10 of 19 hold	3.3% · 4 of 19 hold
Other early buyers	5.7% · 3 of 3 hold	5.1% · 9 of 11 hold	0.4% · 3 of 11 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	10.3% · 14 wallets	10.1% · 30 wallets	3.7% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	89.7%	89.9%	96.3%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	99.5%	81.0%	100.0%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	100% · 1 merged	81.9% · 3 merged	100.0% · 2 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 independent_sniper	3 s · transaction	0.50 NEAR	13.2 min after buying · transaction	+0.26 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 526 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 451 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 307 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 733 of 1044 launches (not put in a group)
2	c8bde0e9209ac73…01899	3 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	35.1 min after buying · transaction	+0.08 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 526 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 440 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 249 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 1030 of 1414 launches (not put in a group)
3	tyty.sendler-b.near bot_wallet	3 s · transaction	0.50 NEAR	62 s after buying · transaction	+0.05 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 307 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 249 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 207 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 396 of 533 launches (not put in a group)
4	wrapz-z.near independent_sniper	3 s · transaction	2.00 NEAR	17.6 min after buying · transaction	+0.53 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 451 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 440 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 207 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 557 of 1039 launches (not put in a group)
5	2a7f31817cd7531…aa3ba	11 s · transaction	34.65 NEAR	3.6 min after buying · transaction	+5.35 NEAR	pair bought within 53.2 s of alola.near · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 8.1 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 8.1 s of wrapz-z.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
6	ethereal_tentac….near	34 s · transaction	6.93 NEAR	2.7 min after buying · transaction	-0.28 NEAR	pair bought within 30.9 s of alola.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 9.1 s of js1112s.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 30.4 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
7	js1112s.near	43 s · transaction	20.00 NEAR	2.4 min after buying · transaction	+1.16 NEAR	pair bought within 39.6 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 47 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 21.8 s of alola.near · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 39.6 s of wrapz-z.near · 26 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs
8	decep.near	56 s · transaction	20.00 NEAR	not sold	-0.48 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 31 of those launches pair bought within 52.4 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 25 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.3 s of beenhere.near · 22 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 8.9 s of alola.near · 21 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
9	beenhere.near	57 s · transaction	2.00 NEAR	17.6 min after buying · transaction	+0.19 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 32 of those launches pair bought within 53.7 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 27 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 7.6 s of alola.near · 24 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.3 s of decep.near · 22 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
10	alola.near	64 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	11.5 min after buying · transaction	+0.19 NEAR	pair bought within 21.8 s of js1112s.near · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 7.6 s of beenhere.near · 24 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 8.9 s of decep.near · 21 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
11	8375d38f538a83e…57122	86 s · transaction	17.37 NEAR	not sold	-1.05 NEAR	pair bought within 21.1 s of alola.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 28.7 s of beenhere.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 42.9 s of js1112s.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
12	daymon_mc.tg	2.0 min · transaction	60.00 NEAR	98 s after buying · transaction	+11.74 NEAR	none found
13	ethereal_enigma….near	2.1 min · transaction	4.95 NEAR	not sold	-0.47 NEAR	none found
14	fuck_you_all.us….near	4.0 min · transaction	14.85 NEAR	5.0 min after buying · transaction	+7.34 NEAR	none found
15	krhuize.tg	5.2 min · transaction	25.00 NEAR	6.5 min after buying · transaction	+1.60 NEAR	pair bought within 3.7 s of h2onear.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 15.4 s of 4ae627b0c091dac…352f4 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 28.4 s of cbf71336c08ec03…762f2 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
16	h2onear.near	5.3 min · transaction	1.90 NEAR	not sold	-0.25 NEAR	group one of 4 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 13 of those launches pair bought within 11.6 s of 4ae627b0c091dac…352f4 · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 3.7 s of krhuize.tg · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 37.4 s of toxic-jeet.user….near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
17	i12345678910111…19.tg	5.3 min · transaction	0.50 NEAR	4.6 min after buying · transaction	+0.22 NEAR	none found
18	4ae627b0c091dac…352f4	5.5 min · transaction	15.00 NEAR	2.8 min after buying · transaction	+5.28 NEAR	group one of 4 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 17 of those launches pair bought within 11.6 s of h2onear.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 42.2 s of hybrid.user.int….near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 17.4 s of 51206134269a0d4….near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
19	cbf71336c08ec03…762f2	5.7 min · transaction	26.39 NEAR	2.3 min after buying · transaction	+5.07 NEAR	pair bought within 13.1 s of 4ae627b0c091dac…352f4 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 28.4 s of krhuize.tg · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
20	51206134269a0d4….near	5.8 min · transaction	20.00 NEAR	3.0 min after buying · transaction	+0.58 NEAR	group one of 3 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 5 of those launches pair bought within 24.7 s of hybrid.user.int….near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 17.4 s of 4ae627b0c091dac…352f4 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 8.3 s of toxic-jeet.user….near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of coldpant65.near

Time	Launchpad	Token	Risk	Outcome	Data
2026-10-01 21:43 UTC	nearly.trade	grhea.nearlytrade.near	20 Low retro	no rug	history: launch only