NEARPOT nearly.trade

nearpot.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: High 80 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

+50
6 of the 6 earlier launches that were already decided at launch time ended as a rug (0 by the creator and 6 by accounts linked to him); smoothed rug share 80%.
Evidence: launch cursor.nearlytrade.near, launch zepita.nearlytrade.near, launch nepe-3.nearlytrade.near, launch laboyito.nearlytr….near, launch ratty.nearlytrade.near
+20
Trade tax 2.00% buy / 2.00% sell; after the platform's 20.00% cut the creator gets 80.00% of it (1.600% per buy, 1.600% per sell; creator_bps 10000, platform_bps 2000).
Evidence: launch nearpot.nearlytrade.near
+10
Received 107.88 NEAR 13 min before the launch from autocursortrade.near, whose earlier launch cursor.nearlytrade.near ended as a rug; 2 such funders in all.
Evidence: transaction Ahqz66EUpMxaoqBdz…1fysG, launch cursor.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 4 % (428 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Rug — fast (by T+60 min). Outside buyers lost 17.10 NEAR.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 100% of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
Sold by: nearpott.near (dev).
Passed the threshold at 2026-09-28 17:19:17 UTC, 4.2 min after the launch: 8YXq9yTusRBT7…roZjM.
Outside buyers' net result: -17.10 NEAR · insiders' net result: +4.97 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-09-28 17:15:04 UTC · block 217660901 · history: launch only
Transaction	Gr9fihoJnnzJN…mLJcR
Creator	nearpott.near explorer
Pool	nearpot.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	35.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 2.00% · sell 2.00% · creator's share of the tax 100.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:46 UTC

Live state: history incomplete before 2026-10-30.

Why there is no number

This launch happened before our live data starts; the trades after its first 24 hours up to that day are missing, so no number is shown. Only the facts that do not need them are below. Why.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-09-29 00:48 UTC (in the launch's first 24 hours; nothing seen since in our live data)
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0 · no trade seen in our live data

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	100%	100%	100%	100%	103.8%
Dev's first sell after launch	4.2 min	4.2 min	4.2 min	4.2 min	4.2 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)	15	15	15	15	15
Buyers spent	199.93 NEAR	199.93 NEAR	199.93 NEAR	199.93 NEAR	199.93 NEAR
Buyers net result	-16.66 NEAR	-17.08 NEAR	-17.08 NEAR	-17.10 NEAR	-17.10 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	100%	100%	100%	100%	103.8%
Insiders' net result	+4.97 NEAR	+4.97 NEAR	+4.97 NEAR	+4.97 NEAR	+6.19 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.23x	1.23x	1.23x	1.23x	1.23x
Holders	6	2	2	3	3
Top 10 holders' share	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	0.8% · 4 of 13 hold	0% · 0 of 13 hold	0% · 0 of 13 hold
Other early buyers	0.1% · 1 of 2 hold	0.1% · 1 of 2 hold	0% · 0 of 2 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	0.9% · 15 wallets	0.1% · 15 wallets	0% · 15 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	99.1%	99.9%	100%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	100%	100%	100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	100% · 1 merged	100% · 0 merged	100% · 0 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 15 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b	30 s · transaction	1.50 NEAR	4.0 min after buying · transaction	+0.02 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 212 of those launches pair bought within 27.1 s of 5d194c7b6c82ebe…2b4cc · 18 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 48.4 s of supremegay.near · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence
2	5d194c7b6c82ebe…2b4cc	57 s · transaction	5.12 NEAR	6.0 min after buying · transaction	-0.53 NEAR	pair bought within 27.1 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 18 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 36.7 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 37.3 s of kimpet77.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
3	00867ad7c43fe5a…cdd9c	61 s · transaction	49.50 NEAR	66 s after buying · transaction	+2.55 NEAR	pair bought within 17.5 s of supremegay.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
4	supremegay.near	78 s · transaction	13.93 NEAR	3.4 min after buying · transaction	-1.67 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 49 of those launches pair bought within 48.4 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 51.1 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 15.4 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
5	orcabl.near	83 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	5.4 min after buying · transaction	-0.20 NEAR	pair bought within 46.6 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
6	d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6	94 s · transaction	1.08 NEAR	3.4 min after buying · transaction	-0.19 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 194 of those launches pair bought within 0.6 s of kimpet77.near · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 36.7 s of 5d194c7b6c82ebe…2b4cc · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 35.8 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs
7	kimpet77.near	94 s · transaction	10.00 NEAR	3.0 min after buying · transaction	-1.25 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 19 of those launches pair bought within 0.6 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 22.3 s of aceng03.near · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 59.8 s of barrey.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
8	ee0a4fe1198ae97…5d0be	103 s · transaction	30.00 NEAR	2.6 min after buying · transaction	-3.75 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 13 of those launches pair bought within 13.1 s of aceng03.near · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 9.2 s of kimpet77.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 50.6 s of barrey.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
9	aceng03.near	117 s · transaction	8.00 NEAR	2.7 min after buying · transaction	-1.69 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 33 of those launches pair bought within 13.1 s of ee0a4fe1198ae97…5d0be · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 22.3 s of kimpet77.near · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 37.5 s of barrey.near · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
10	7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8	2.1 min · transaction	40.00 NEAR	31 s after buying · transaction	-2.10 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 77 of those launches pair bought within 51.1 s of supremegay.near · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 35.8 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 24.6 s of barrey.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
11	barrey.near	2.6 min · transaction	2.98 NEAR	3.3 min after buying · transaction	-0.75 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 47 of those launches pair bought within 37.5 s of aceng03.near · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 59.8 s of kimpet77.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 24.6 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
12	cryptopoorency.near	2.9 min · transaction	19.90 NEAR	2.1 min after buying · transaction	-3.99 NEAR	pair bought within 54.2 s of aceng03.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
13	adefajar.tg	3.3 min · transaction	1.00 NEAR	5.6 min after buying · transaction	-0.25 NEAR	pair bought within 42.7 s of barrey.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
14	farcastmage.near	3.5 min · transaction	14.92 NEAR	78 s after buying · transaction	-3.04 NEAR	none found
15	rupeshyy.tg	3.7 min · transaction	1.00 NEAR	45.7 min after buying · transaction	-0.27 NEAR	none found

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of nearpott.near

Time	Launchpad	Token	Risk	Outcome	Data
2026-09-29 00:44 UTC	nearly.trade	nearpot-2.nearlytrade.near	80 High retro	no rug	history: launch only