In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.
+20
Trade tax 2.00% buy / 2.00% sell; after the platform's 20.00% cut the creator gets 80.00% of it (1.600% per buy, 1.600% per sell; creator_bps 10000, platform_bps 2000).
The largest funder's (a855520594ea7a615927a525cb025c572ae3073465f1c0c7188881433011bde9) history before 2026-09-22 is not loaded yet, so the history-based signals may be incomplete.
It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.
Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 1 % (233 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.
Outcome rug within 24 h
Rug — fast (by T+60 min).
Outside buyers lost 12.36 NEAR.
Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 154.0% of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
Passed the threshold at 2026-09-28 09:49:26 UTC, 80 s after the launch: HMaufTP9Voois…VyR8v.
Outside buyers' net result: -12.36 NEAR · insiders' net result: +1.32 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.
Launch
Launched
2026-09-28 09:48:06 UTC · block 217615791 · history: launch only
buy 2.00% · sell 2.00% · creator's share of the tax 100.00%
Live state not a forecast · as of 14:50 UTC
No trading · the last trade was 2026-09-28 15:47 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.
Facts now
Last trade
2026-09-28 15:47 UTC
Price now
0.98x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.70x the peak
Outside buyers in profit
4 of 15 · 26.7%
Last 15 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour
0
Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Dev account
0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
—
Early buyers in a bundle
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
0% · 0 of 3 hold
What these facts are
Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.
What happened after the launch
Metric
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+30 min
T+60 min
T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)
100%
100%
146.3%
154.0%
165.3%
Dev's first sell after launch
80 s
80 s
80 s
80 s
80 s
Buyers (other than the insiders)
9
15
15
15
15
Buyers spent
163.58 NEAR
235.49 NEAR
235.49 NEAR
235.49 NEAR
235.49 NEAR
Buyers net result
+11.36 NEAR
-9.53 NEAR
-9.85 NEAR
-12.36 NEAR
-14.22 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)
1
1
1
1
1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)
100%
100%
146.3%
154.0%
165.3%
Insiders' net result
+0.19 NEAR
+0.19 NEAR
+1.17 NEAR
+1.32 NEAR
+1.54 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer
1.26x
1.39x
1.39x
1.39x
1.39x
Holders
9
4
6
5
3
Top 10 holders' share
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.
Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Holder
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+60 min
Dev account
0% · holds nothing
0% · holds nothing
0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
—
—
—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
—
—
—
Early buyers in a bundle
—
—
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
4.6% · 2 of 3 hold
0% · 0 of 3 hold
0% · 0 of 3 hold
Other early buyers
6.5% · 6 of 6 hold
5.3% · 3 of 12 hold
3.3% · 2 of 12 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)
11.1% · 9 wallets
5.3% · 15 wallets
3.3% · 15 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)
88.9%
94.7%
96.7%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)
100%
100%
100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder
100% · 0 merged
100% · 0 merged
100% · 0 merged
How to read the table
A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.
Early buyers the first 15 wallets that bought, and what links them
Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.