CAREFULL nearly.trade

carefull.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Elevated 30 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

  • +20
    Trade tax 4.00% buy / 4.00% sell; after the platform's 30.00% cut the creator gets 70.00% of it (2.800% per buy, 2.800% per sell; creator_bps 10000, platform_bps 3000).
  • +10
    Received 10.00 NEAR 192.4 h before the launch from glacial_anomaly.user.intear.near, whose earlier launch obhv.nearlytrade.near (made by dmitrynav.tg, linked to him) ended as a rug; 2 such funders in all.

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 22 % (2744 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders' sold share unknown and the insiders sold nothing; the price held at 96 % of its peak (a rug needs 10 % or less).

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold — of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
  • Sold by: kolosun.tg (dev).
  • Outside buyers' net result: -1.20 NEAR · insiders' net result: +0.01 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
  • Price at T+24 h: 96% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-10-09 12:38:06 UTC · block 219231346 · history: launch only
Transaction2WkuQZhxfwuge…tPxCo
Creatorkolosun.tg explorer
Poolcarefull.nearlytrade.near|wrap.near|10000
Dev buy0.00 NEAR
Tax optionsbuy 4.00% · sell 4.00% · creator's share of the tax 100.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:43 UTC

Live state: history incomplete before 2026-10-30.

Why there is no number

This launch happened before our live data starts; the trades after its first 24 hours up to that day are missing, so no number is shown. Only the facts that do not need them are below. Why.

Facts now

Last trade2026-10-09 14:27 UTC (in the launch's first 24 hours; nothing seen since in our live data)
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0 · no trade seen in our live data
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)—————
Dev's first sell after launch————87.5 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)33444
Buyers spent11.40 NEAR11.40 NEAR12.38 NEAR12.38 NEAR12.38 NEAR
Buyers net result-0.34 NEAR-0.56 NEAR-0.37 NEAR-1.16 NEAR-1.20 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)11111
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)—————
Insiders' net result0.00 NEAR0.00 NEAR0.00 NEAR0.00 NEAR+0.0072 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer1.02x1.02x1.02x1.02x1.02x
Holders33410
Top 10 holders' share100%100%100%100%—

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 0% · holds nothing 0% · holds nothing 0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — —
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side 0.0% · 1 of 1 hold 0.0% · 1 of 1 hold 0% · 0 of 1 hold
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group — — —
Other early buyers 1% · 2 of 2 hold 1% · 2 of 2 hold 0.1% · 1 of 3 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)1.0% · 3 wallets1.0% · 3 wallets0.1% · 4 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)99.0%99.0%99.9%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)100%100%100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder100% · 0 merged100% · 0 merged100% · 0 merged
How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 4 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 hooting.near 17 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR 30.1 min after buying · transaction -0.08 NEAR
2 frigid_polar1.u….near 63 s · transaction 9.90 NEAR 33.6 min after buying · transaction -0.95 NEAR
3 mcloven1.tg 2.4 min · transaction 0.50 NEAR 55.4 min after buying · transaction -0.06 NEAR
4 frost-racer-685….near 21.1 min · transaction 0.98 NEAR not sold -0.08 NEAR
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of kolosun.tg

TimeLaunchpadTokenRiskOutcomeData
2026-10-01 11:55 UTC nearly.trade mark.nearlytrade.near 60 High retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-01 13:00 UTC nearly.trade scamtest.nearlytrade.near 60 High retro rug history: launch only
2026-10-01 19:12 UTC nearly.trade beer-2.nearlytrade.near 65 High retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-03 16:59 UTC nearly.trade markpenis.nearlytrade.near 30 Elevated retro rug history: launch only
2026-10-26 20:26 UTC justhoot v2 gemini.v2-launchpad.justhoot.near 10 Low retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-27 13:38 UTC justhoot v2 antperp.v2-launchpad.justhoot.near 10 Low retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-27 13:43 UTC justhoot v2 ant-2.v2-launchpad.justhoot.near 15 Low retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-27 13:45 UTC justhoot v2 ant-3.v2-launchpad.justhoot.near 15 Low retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-27 13:52 UTC justhoot v2 ant-4.v2-launchpad.justhoot.near 15 Low retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-29 14:44 UTC justhoot v2 nearpump.v2-launchpad.justhoot.near 10 Low retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-29 20:53 UTC justhoot v2 hacked.v2-launchpad.justhoot.near 10 Low retro no rug history: launch only
2026-11-09 17:11 UTC justhoot v2 nkmeme.v2-launchpad.justhoot.near 10 Low no rug live
2026-11-12 17:24 UTC nearly.trade bigillia.nearlytrade.near 5 Low rug live