MARK nearly.trade

mark.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: High 60 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

+30
17 of the 34 earlier launches that were already decided at launch time ended as a rug (0 by the creator and 17 by accounts linked to him); smoothed rug share 48%.
Evidence: launch bnomo.nearlytrade.near, launch route.nearlytrade.near, launch scroge.nearlytrade.near, launch scrooge.nearlytrade.near, launch pumpkinu.nearlytr….near
+20
Trade tax 3.00% buy / 3.00% sell; after the platform's 20.00% cut the creator gets 40.00% of it (1.200% per buy, 1.200% per sell; creator_bps 5000, platform_bps 2000).
Evidence: launch mark.nearlytrade.near
+10
Received 50.00 NEAR 2206.9 h before the launch from sergeserge1.tg, whose earlier launch bnomo.nearlytrade.near (made by ex3dex.tg, linked to him) ended as a rug.
Evidence: transaction BgfD5gYsmd7Sz3iko…xewk6, launch bnomo.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 21 % (1683 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired by T+24 h, below the 80 % threshold.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 0% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Outside buyers' net result: -124.27 NEAR · insiders' net result: -2.73 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 31% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-10-01 11:55:58 UTC · block 218055142 · history: launch only
Transaction	Dv4RRyffnCyWR…eoqjQ
Creator	kolosun.tg explorer
Pool	mark.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	0.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 3.00% · sell 3.00% · creator's share of the tax 50.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:45 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-11-06 16:49 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-11-06 16:49 UTC
Price now	0.99x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.21x the peak
Outside buyers in profit	52 of 123 · 42.3%
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account	0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	0% · 0 of 2 hold
Early buyers in a bundle	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	0% · 0 of 11 hold

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	—	—	0%	0%	0%
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	—	—	—
Buyers (other than the insiders)	20	43	82	112	123
Buyers spent	200.00 NEAR	432.19 NEAR	1,205.03 NEAR	2,100.68 NEAR	2,169.57 NEAR
Buyers net result	+30.71 NEAR	+145.77 NEAR	+1,001.86 NEAR	+492.37 NEAR	-124.27 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	—	—	0%	0%	0%
Insiders' net result	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	+10.04 NEAR	+5.63 NEAR	-2.73 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.39x	1.92x	4.47x	4.72x	4.72x
Holders	20	41	78	73	43
Top 10 holders' share	72%	52.0%	41.2%	45.7%	75.9%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing	0.5% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	1.6% · 2 of 2 hold	0.9% · 1 of 2 hold
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	8.3% · 9 of 9 hold	9.6% · 11 of 11 hold	8.9% · 7 of 11 hold
Other early buyers	7.4% · 11 of 11 hold	11.6% · 15 of 17 hold	10.5% · 13 of 17 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	15.8% · 20 wallets	22.7% · 30 wallets	20.3% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	84.2%	77.3%	79.2%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	72%	52.0%	45.7%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	89.3% · 1 merged	65.9% · 1 merged	53.6% · 1 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	frigid_polar1.u….near	109 s · transaction	39.60 NEAR	not sold	+79.10 NEAR	pair bought within 50.7 s of js1112s.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 56.7 s of sessssssssss.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
2	badriansyahirwa….near	2.5 min · transaction	0.50 NEAR	37.2 min after buying · transaction	+1.14 NEAR	pair bought within 18.2 s of sessssssssss.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
3	aiml.near	2.6 min · transaction	20.00 NEAR	not sold	+36.62 NEAR	none found
4	js1112s.near	2.6 min · transaction	10.00 NEAR	not sold	+9.92 NEAR	pair bought within 6.0 s of sessssssssss.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 50.7 s of frigid_polar1.u….near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
5	sessssssssss.near	2.8 min · transaction	31.00 NEAR	8.4 min after buying · transaction	+11.47 NEAR	pair bought within 18.2 s of badriansyahirwa….near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 6.0 s of js1112s.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 56.7 s of frigid_polar1.u….near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
6	0xrj7s1j3e9.use….near	2.9 min · transaction	9.90 NEAR	not sold	+16.73 NEAR	none found
7	indix.near	3.3 min · transaction	3.00 NEAR	4.5 min after buying · transaction	+0.73 NEAR	none found
8	mcloven1.tg	3.5 min · transaction	5.00 NEAR	not sold	+6.42 NEAR	none found
9	a54372690c54569…06985	4.1 min · transaction	15.00 NEAR	25.6 min after buying · transaction	+20.36 NEAR	none found
10	edd42af83d1080f…31559	4.1 min · transaction	15.00 NEAR	25.6 min after buying · transaction	+20.29 NEAR	none found
11	d0855278b39a29f…f2443	4.1 min · transaction	15.00 NEAR	25.6 min after buying · transaction	+19.28 NEAR	none found
12	majornecktie8007.near	4.1 min · transaction	15.00 NEAR	25.6 min after buying · transaction	+19.06 NEAR	group one of 5 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 5 of those launches pair bought within 1.3 s of gutsah.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.3 s of onionsage.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.3 s of smallicon823.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs
13	onionsage.near	4.1 min · transaction	15.00 NEAR	25.6 min after buying · transaction	+18.85 NEAR	group one of 5 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 5 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of gutsah.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of smallicon823.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of soonlink3248.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs
14	soonlink3248.near	4.1 min · transaction	15.00 NEAR	25.6 min after buying · transaction	+18.36 NEAR	group one of 5 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 5 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of gutsah.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of onionsage.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of smallicon823.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs
15	smallicon823.near	4.1 min · transaction	15.00 NEAR	25.6 min after buying · transaction	+17.89 NEAR	group one of 5 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 5 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of gutsah.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of onionsage.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of soonlink3248.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs
16	gutsah.near	4.1 min · transaction	15.00 NEAR	25.6 min after buying · transaction	+17.71 NEAR	group one of 5 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 5 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of onionsage.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of smallicon823.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of soonlink3248.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs
17	e9840eb52725fc3…b0865	4.1 min · transaction	15.00 NEAR	25.6 min after buying · transaction	+16.90 NEAR	none found
18	46045fc2e7d1231…1e0be	4.1 min · transaction	15.00 NEAR	25.6 min after buying · transaction	+16.58 NEAR	none found
19	e8a162641a55288…58210	4.2 min · transaction	5.00 NEAR	2.6 min after buying · transaction	+0.03 NEAR	none found
20	thermoli.near	4.5 min · transaction	8.00 NEAR	24.1 min after buying · transaction	+10.06 NEAR	none found

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of kolosun.tg

Time	Launchpad	Token	Risk	Outcome	Data
2026-10-01 13:00 UTC	nearly.trade	scamtest.nearlytrade.near	60 High retro	rug	history: launch only
2026-10-01 19:12 UTC	nearly.trade	beer-2.nearlytrade.near	65 High retro	no rug	history: launch only
2026-10-03 16:59 UTC	nearly.trade	markpenis.nearlytrade.near	30 Elevated retro	rug	history: launch only
2026-10-09 12:38 UTC	nearly.trade	carefull.nearlytrade.near	30 Elevated retro	no rug	history: launch only
2026-10-26 20:26 UTC	justhoot v2	gemini.v2-launchpad.justhoot.near	10 Low retro	no rug	history: launch only
2026-10-27 13:38 UTC	justhoot v2	antperp.v2-launchpad.justhoot.near	10 Low retro	no rug	history: launch only
2026-10-27 13:43 UTC	justhoot v2	ant-2.v2-launchpad.justhoot.near	15 Low retro	no rug	history: launch only
2026-10-27 13:45 UTC	justhoot v2	ant-3.v2-launchpad.justhoot.near	15 Low retro	no rug	history: launch only
2026-10-27 13:52 UTC	justhoot v2	ant-4.v2-launchpad.justhoot.near	15 Low retro	no rug	history: launch only
2026-10-29 14:44 UTC	justhoot v2	nearpump.v2-launchpad.justhoot.near	10 Low retro	no rug	history: launch only
2026-10-29 20:53 UTC	justhoot v2	hacked.v2-launchpad.justhoot.near	10 Low retro	no rug	history: launch only
2026-11-09 17:11 UTC	justhoot v2	nkmeme.v2-launchpad.justhoot.near	10 Low	no rug	live
2026-11-12 17:24 UTC	nearly.trade	bigillia.nearlytrade.near	5 Low	rug	live