MHONKY nearly.trade

mhonky.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: High 80 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 5 % (446 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Rug — fast (by T+60 min). Outside buyers lost 24.27 NEAR.

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 103.8% of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
  • Sold by: mhonky.near (dev).
  • Passed the threshold at 2026-09-28 18:08:26 UTC, 2.8 min after the launch: DzdcpyGAf4Ron…ym1Sz.
  • Outside buyers' net result: -24.27 NEAR · insiders' net result: +8.08 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-09-28 18:05:40 UTC · block 217666009 · history: launch only
Transaction4wZEbvdkPmLvK…PEFoK
Creatormhonky.near explorer
Poolmhonky.nearlytrade.near|wrap.near|10000
Dev buy40.00 NEAR
Tax optionsbuy 2.00% · sell 3.00% · creator's share of the tax 100.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:45 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-09-30 11:07 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade2026-09-30 11:07 UTC
Price now0.91x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.69x the peak
Outside buyers in profit3 of 20 · 15%
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side—
Early buyers in a bundle—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group0% · 0 of 16 hold
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)100%100%103.8%103.8%103.8%
Dev's first sell after launch2.8 min2.8 min2.8 min2.8 min2.8 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)2020202020
Buyers spent235.73 NEAR235.73 NEAR235.73 NEAR235.73 NEAR235.73 NEAR
Buyers net result-24.02 NEAR-24.22 NEAR-24.24 NEAR-24.27 NEAR-24.27 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)11111
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)100%100%103.8%103.8%103.8%
Insiders' net result+6.70 NEAR+6.70 NEAR+8.08 NEAR+8.08 NEAR+8.08 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer1.32x1.32x1.32x1.32x1.32x
Holders85434
Top 10 holders' share100%100%100%100%100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 0% · holds nothing 0% · holds nothing 0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — —
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side — — —
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group 0.6% · 6 of 16 hold 0.1% · 1 of 16 hold 0% · 0 of 16 hold
Other early buyers 0.0% · 1 of 4 hold 0.0% · 1 of 4 hold 0% · 0 of 4 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)0.6% · 20 wallets0.1% · 20 wallets0% · 20 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)99.4%99.9%100%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)100%100%100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder100% · 2 merged100% · 1 merged100% · 0 merged
How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b 32 s · transaction 1.50 NEAR 5.7 min after buying · transaction -0.18 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 212 of those launches
pair bought within 40.2 s of alola.near · 103 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 53.0 s of badriansyahirwa….near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 30.8 s of 5b9d43abb215de7…4c173 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 3 more pairs · all pairs
2 gakusahliat.near 44 s · transaction 2.00 NEAR 2.4 min after buying · transaction +0.21 NEAR
group one of 4 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 8 of those launches
pair bought within 18.6 s of 5b9d43abb215de7…4c173 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 12.3 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 27.9 s of alola.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 1 more pairs · all pairs
3 equalharbor5773.near 50 s · transaction 30.00 NEAR 3.7 min after buying · transaction -3.54 NEAR
pair bought within 21.7 s of alola.near · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 18.5 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 12.4 s of 5b9d43abb215de7…4c173 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
4 5b9d43abb215de7…4c173 62 s · transaction 29.85 NEAR 2.3 min after buying · transaction +0.13 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 34 of those launches
pair bought within 9.3 s of alola.near · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 30.8 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 18.6 s of gakusahliat.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 5 more pairs · all pairs
5 ebisidiaidi.near 67 s · transaction 50.00 NEAR 80 s after buying · transaction +0.25 NEAR
pair bought within 4.9 s of alola.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 4.5 s of 5b9d43abb215de7…4c173 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 35.3 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 1 more pairs · all pairs
6 alola.near 72 s · transaction 1.50 NEAR 30.1 min after buying · transaction -0.44 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 241 of those launches
pair bought within 40.2 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 103 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 12.8 s of badriansyahirwa….near · 21 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 9.3 s of 5b9d43abb215de7…4c173 · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
7 badriansyahirwa….near 85 s · transaction 0.50 NEAR 4.5 min after buying · transaction -0.14 NEAR
group one of 4 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 5 of those launches
pair bought within 12.8 s of alola.near · 21 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 53.0 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 22.1 s of 5b9d43abb215de7…4c173 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 3 more pairs · all pairs
8 hardroom2708.near 98 s · transaction 15.00 NEAR 116 s after buying · transaction -2.22 NEAR none found
9 teend.near 101 s · transaction 20.00 NEAR 57 s after buying · transaction -2.46 NEAR
group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 10 of those launches
pair bought within 39.0 s of 5b9d43abb215de7…4c173 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 12.8 s of panjipetualang.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 29.6 s of alola.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
10 panjipetualang.near 114 s · transaction 3.00 NEAR 45 s after buying · transaction -0.39 NEAR
group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 14 of those launches
pair bought within 29.6 s of badriansyahirwa….near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 42.4 s of alola.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 51.7 s of 5b9d43abb215de7…4c173 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 4 more pairs · all pairs
11 orcabl.near 2.0 min · transaction 1.00 NEAR 3.3 min after buying · transaction -0.31 NEAR
pair bought within 50.6 s of alola.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
12 396b18bf384131f…34d60 2.3 min · transaction 9.90 NEAR 47 s after buying · transaction -1.36 NEAR none found
13 freshuser3857.near 2.4 min · transaction 4.00 NEAR 2.6 min after buying · transaction -1.30 NEAR none found
14 8892f9d61bc0e42…aef18 2.4 min · transaction 0.20 NEAR 2.7 min after buying · transaction -0.07 NEAR
group one of 4 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 6 of those launches
pair bought within 6.4 s of 4282ce57357f41f…87b2d · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 28.7 s of panjipetualang.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 58.3 s of badriansyahirwa….near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
15 4282ce57357f41f…87b2d 2.5 min · transaction 2.98 NEAR 3.2 min after buying · transaction -0.82 NEAR
pair bought within 6.4 s of 8892f9d61bc0e42…aef18 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 55.9 s of sessssssssss.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 35.1 s of panjipetualang.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 1 more pairs · all pairs
16 cutelace2414.near 2.7 min · transaction 30.00 NEAR 83 s after buying · transaction -6.02 NEAR
pair bought within 18.7 s of bigvinegar9113.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 41.5 s of sessssssssss.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 22.1 s of lambadaa.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
17 excaper.near 3.0 min · transaction 0.30 NEAR 22.9 min after buying · transaction -0.08 NEAR none found
18 bigvinegar9113.near 3.0 min · transaction 10.00 NEAR 50 s after buying · transaction -1.38 NEAR
pair bought within 18.7 s of cutelace2414.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 22.8 s of sessssssssss.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
19 lambadaa.near 3.1 min · transaction 15.00 NEAR 76 s after buying · transaction -3.12 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 43 of those launches
pair bought within 19.4 s of sessssssssss.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 22.1 s of cutelace2414.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 36.5 s of 4282ce57357f41f…87b2d · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
20 sessssssssss.near 3.4 min · transaction 9.00 NEAR 27 s after buying · transaction -1.03 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 66 of those launches
pair bought within 19.4 s of lambadaa.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 55.9 s of 4282ce57357f41f…87b2d · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 22.8 s of bigvinegar9113.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 1 more pairs · all pairs
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of mhonky.near

None known.